A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
